Chuuk State:  The 4th Quarter was relatively dry at most locations across Chuuk State; nearly all islands dropped below 10 inches of rain during December, with some locations receiving even less than 5 inches. Annual rainfall in Chuuk State during the calendar year 2008 was distributed in a north-south pattern, with the northern atolls receiving the least, and some of the atolls further south in the Mortlocks receiving the most. The annual total of 149.24 inches observed at Ta Atoll in the southern Mortlocks was the highest annual total throughout Chuuk State. The annual totals of 71.40 inches and 94.05 inches at Polowat and Fananu, respectively, were the lowest annual readings in the state. The 128.42 inches recorded at the Chuuk WSO was near normal (96%). The weather was tranquil throughout Chuuk State during 2008 with few unusually heavy rains or episodes of strong wind. As was the case a year earlier in 2007, persistent trade winds and high surf contributed to substantial and damaging sea inundation on some of the atolls of Chuuk State. Of note, the high surf event of the 2nd week of December 2008 was particularly destructive in some of the atolls of Chuuk State and elsewhere in Micronesia.

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2008

Climate Outlook: Gusty easterly trade winds should continue to dominate the flow throughout Micronesia for the next three months. Higher than normal sea-level coupled with high surf may cause more inundation events on the islands in Chuuk Lagoon and other atolls in Chuuk State. These conditions are possible through April 2009, after which the trade winds and swell from winter storms should become weaker. For the next three months, rainfall will be distributed in a north-south pattern across Chuuk State, with atolls in the north (Fananu and Onoun) receiving less rain than atolls located further south (Ta and Namoluk). From August through December, several of the tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific basin will begin their lives in Chuuk State as depressions. One or two occurrences of gale-force wind associated with a tropical cyclone may affect Chuuk Lagoon or atolls to the north, especially in the fall of 2009, representing a normal risk.

Forecast rainfall for Chuuk State from January 2009 through December 2009 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI