Republic of the Marshall Islands: Overall, the rainfall throughout most of the atolls of the RMI was close to normal during the 1st Quarter of 2008. The 3-month total of 23.38 inches at Majuro WSO was 102% of its normal. This does not reveal the whole story, however, as dryness in the latter half of March through the first 2 weeks of April prompted calls for emergency water restrictions on Majuro. The municipal water supply on Majuro is derived from two primary sources: rainwater collected on the runway of the International Airport, and well water pumped from Laura. The runway water is stored in a reservoir that holds up to 33 million gallons of water. Upwards of 400,000 gallons per day can be extracted from wells on Laura and pumped eastward to the population centers of Majuro. At the end of the first week of April, the airport reservoir was drawn down to 9 million gallons, and only a tenth of an inch of rain had fallen that week. More stringent restrictions on water use were almost certain if the dry weather continued. One inch of rainfall can yield 3 million gallons of water for the reservoir, but through the second week of April, only about one-half inch of rain had fallen. The PEAC Center forecast is for the trade wind trough to build-in within the next few weeks to bring near normal rainfall to Majuro and alleviate their water emergency.

Elsewhere, the northern atolls of the RMI (Kwajalein, Utirik and Wotje) were among the driest of locations in Micronesia during the 1st Quarter of 2008 (Fig. 1), with 3-month rainfall totals of less than 10 inches in some locations. These islands are now in their dry season, and a normal seasonal increase of rainfall is anticipated over the next month or two. Meanwhile, further south, Mili recorded a relatively high value (33.95 inches) for the 1st Quarter rainfall. It may be prudent for residents of Majuro and the northern atolls of the RMI to begin voluntary conservation measures to ensure adequate supplies of drinking water. Inadequate rainfall may lead to mandatory emergency water restrictions on Majuro over the next few weeks.

Republic of the Marshall Islands Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2008

Climate Outlook: A typical increase in seasonal rainfall is anticipated to occur in the RMI, especially for those northern islands that are now locked in the heart of their dry season. Normal monthly rainfall totals jump to over 10 inches at Majuro commencing in April and lasting through December. While Majuro may not reach its normal April quota, it is anticipated that rainfall will gradually return to normal by mid-May or early June. The worst-case scenario is that the rainfall during May and June continues to be substantially below normal, pushing Majuro into a more serious water emergency. Given the underlying climate pattern, it is reasonable to expect that near normal rainfall will resume within the next month or two and continue as such for the remainder of 2008. With anticipation of La Niña conditions persisting for at least the next three months, the RMI has a very low risk of a typhoon during the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for the RMI from May 2008 through April 2009 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI